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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though experts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – as many as 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.