Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting Israel dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in August produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the war is proving more difficult than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.

Judy Sanders
Judy Sanders

Lena is a tech journalist with over a decade of experience, specializing in consumer electronics and emerging technologies.